I took a look at the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting. In fact, I didn't pay much attention to this minute. The reason is that the current situation is already clearer. There was not too much bargaining in the March meeting. As for the expectation of interest rate cuts, the focus within the Federal Reserve is still on the data, but the Federal Reserve has already anticipated the opportunity to cut interest rates in 2024.
But this opportunity is three, four, or one. Two is too early for the Fed, which has not even finished the first quarter. So from Powell's speech, we can see that he is still a master of Tai Chi. The slightly different thing is that he is talking about the issue of balance sheet reduction, and it is even possible that slowing down the balance sheet reduction will go before cutting interest rates.
I saw several key points in this meeting record, and I would like to share them with you:
1. U.S. stock prices overall have hit new highs. This growth was once again driven primarily by strong growth in the valuations of large technology companies, while the broader stock price gains were more cautious.
2. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would end its short-term negative interest rate and yield curve control policies; this decision was largely expected by investors, and the BOJ’s announcement had limited impact on global financial markets.
3. Use of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility continues to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in the second half of 2023. Staff forecasts suggest that total ON RRP balances are likely to stabilize at zero or low levels in the coming months.
4. In sharp contrast to the strong growth of US GDP in the fourth quarter, economic growth in foreign economies was generally weak amid tight monetary policy, high inflation that eroded real household income, and the continued impact of Europe's 2022 energy crisis.
5. Despite rising interest rates, the overall stock price index rose significantly, driven by optimistic corporate earnings reports, especially from the largest companies.
6. Total bank deposit levels rose slightly further in January and February, probably in part due to rising nominal incomes and more competitive deposit rates.
7. The credit quality of large corporations and residential mortgage borrowers remained stable, but the credit quality of industries such as commercial real estate and credit cards generally deteriorated further.
8. The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the March meeting was stronger than the January forecast. The upward revision primarily reflected a higher projection for the path of population growth due to increased immigration. Some participants noted that increased immigration may have boosted growth in personal consumption expenditures and may have increased demand for housing.
9. Participants discussed the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and said that recent data did not increase their confidence that inflation would continue to decline toward 2 percent.
10. In discussing the policy outlook, participants viewed that the policy rate was likely to have reached its peak in this tightening cycle, and nearly all participants agreed that it would be appropriate to shift policy to an accommodative stance sometime this year if the economy generally developed as they expected.
So in general, this meeting minutes is basically consistent with Powell’s public speech. For specific content, you can refer to the Fed’s announcement.
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