March 28th Crypto Options Volatility Research Report
BTC broke through 71600 and then crashed. Is it going to plummet?
1. Core viewpoints:
1-Yesterday, BTC ETF had a net outflow of 295 million; it is expected that the actual volatility will fluctuate widely before the halving, mainly at the opening of US stocks and 3-4pm in the Asian market. Doomsday option players must be careful about risks
2-From the perspective of the term structure of BTC and ETH, yesterday's wide fluctuation in BTC panic had little impact; the short-term bearish hidden wave is only 5-8 vol higher than the bullish one.
2. BTC\ETH\SOL
①In stock
Last night, the spot price fluctuated widely between 71,600 and 68,500 US dollars, up and down 3,000 US dollars. At the same time, ETH also fluctuated between 3,400 and 3,600 US dollars.
For options that are about to expire, my operating habit in the past six months has been to lock in profits in advance to avoid pocketing floating profits.
Recently, after Sol reached a high of 210 US dollars, it fell back and the actual volatility range became narrower and narrower. Visual inspection is gestating a new round of large fluctuations.
② Option hidden wave
Overall for the three core targets, we can observe the term structure and find that the market is
Implied volatility at the mid- and front-end levels has been further reduced.
Sol's Hidden Wave has also been reduced from 140% in the previous round to 110%.
I personally would not do short-term long hidden wave operations. This time period and volatility are relatively unclear, so reducing the far end of the operation layout will give me peace of mind.
There are 2 ETH ETF strategies deployed in the planet, which are more stable.
③ Bulk transactions
Yesterday, there were more than 700 call option buying orders at the end of the year in BTC 27 DEC 24 100000-C
In addition, in the mid-term, there were also some large-volume short-selling implied volatility transactions:
For example: BTC Short 31 MAY 24-85000-C, BTC Short 5 APR-68000/73000-Strangle,
For ETH bulk operations, we adopted the strategy of bearish volatility and no bullish strategy represented by ETH Short 26 APR 24-4200-Straddle.
Sol There are no special large trades, only the put option with an open position of 700 is worth noting.
buy SOL_USDC-5APR24-180-P
3. Copycat options
Some of the#Kasand#Dogelayouts have some floating losses; overall, it is still a mid-term consideration. In the actual future, fixed investment will be considered when opening positions, and the income will be smoother.
4. Other capital markets
US stock market:
The U.S. stock market rose slightly yesterday, and some of the TSLA\TMF\DPST option strategies we previously deployed have relatively stable returns.
The U.S. bond market was calm and TLT climbed steadily.
A-share market:
A-shares without GJD funds will fall, and 3,000 points will become a defense battle. The 300 big ticket was relatively strong, while the theme small ticket continued to fall in late trading. Beishui had a net outflow of 10 billion yesterday. The short-term market is a curse that will fall for a long time without new funds and new narratives.
The hidden wave of 300 starts to rise on the micro disk. The hidden wave of small tickets increased even more, indicating that funds voted with their feet to buy a lot of put options. I have also been reminding everyone to avoid small-ticket options this year. Personally, I basically don’t even do small-ticket options.
Finally, friends who want to learn options in depth are welcome to join "Sober Chat Options Planet". In the future, there will be no price reductions or promotions, only price increases.
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